CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIAN MONSOON RAINFALL FORECASTING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22159/ijags.2024v12i4.50801Keywords:
Review, Rainfall, Time Series, Modeling, DroughtAbstract
Extensive study has been undertaken in recent years to comprehend climate changes and their potential impacts, aiming to mitigate natural disasters such as droughts, snowfall, floods, and more. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review focusing on the variability in rains during the Indian monsoon, employing statistical analysis, modeling, and forecasting techniques applied by various researchers over the years. The findings of this study reveal that the variability in Indian rainfall time series can be attributed to a range of tools and methodologies. This variability plays a key part in the development and prediction of future rainfall forecasting models. Notably, Data on historical rainfall time series have predominantly centered on broad regional scales in India and its subdivisions. To better serve the needs of farmers and bolster the Indian economy, there is an urgent need to develop new statistical models at smaller spatial and temporal scales. Throughout this review, it becomes clear that there exists an average monsoon rainfall level in India, which functions as a benchmark. Rainfall below this threshold is considered a poor monsoon, while rainfall exceeding it is regarded as a good monsoon. It is worth noting that a substantial 70% of the annual rainfall occurs in India during the monsoon season, encompassing the period from June to September. The average monsoon rainfall in India, calculated based on data spanning a century from 1901 to 2000, stands at 85 cm. Notably, specific years such as 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2016 have witnessed below-average rainfall. This comprehensive review serves as a wonderful resource for readers interested in learning more about the intricacies of monsoon rainfall variability in India and its potential modeling through appropriate methodologies.
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